{"id":9019,"date":"2023-11-09T02:48:02","date_gmt":"2023-11-09T02:48:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lendingsensibly.com\/news\/u-s-q4-2023-gdp-growth-still-appears-set-for-substantial-slowdown\/"},"modified":"2023-11-09T02:48:03","modified_gmt":"2023-11-09T02:48:03","slug":"u-s-q4-2023-gdp-growth-still-appears-set-for-substantial-slowdown","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lendingsensibly.com\/?p=9019","title":{"rendered":"U.S. Q4 2023 GDP Growth Still Appears Set For Substantial Slowdown"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-test-id=\"content-container\">\n<p><figure class=\"getty-figure\" data-type=\"getty-image\"><picture>  <\/picture><figcaption> <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p>The red-hot economic growth in the third quarter remains on track to decelerate sharply in the final three months of the year, based on the median nowcast via a set of estimates compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.<\/p>\n<p>US output<span class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\"> is currently estimated to be 1.0% in Q4, according to today\u2019s data. The nowcast reflects a sharply softer pace of growth vs. Q3\u2019s <\/span>4.9% increase<span class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">, the highest in nearly two years.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure paywall-full-content invisible\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lendingsensibly.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/saupload_gdp.cs_.2023-11-08a.png\" alt=\"US real GDP\" contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\"> <\/picture><figcaption><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">Today\u2019s median nowcast is fractionally above the previous estimate published on Oct. 27. The longer the slower nowcast persists, the more reliable the estimate will be in terms of aligning with the actual number, which is scheduled for release by the Bureau of Economic Analysis in late-January.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">Most of the Q4 economic numbers are still missing and so today\u2019s nowcast should be viewed cautiously. That includes assuming that the slowdown<span class=\"paywall-full-content no-summary-bullets invisible\"> in GDP growth will trigger a recession in 2023\u2019s final quarter.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">As discussed on CapitalSpectator.com yesterday, while the case for slower growth in Q4 is mounting, the odds still look relatively low that an NBER-defined recession will start in the final three months of 2023.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Even if the US avoids the start of a recession in Q4, a slowdown \u2013 if it\u2019s substantial \u2013 would raise warning flags for 2024.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The labor market will likely be a key indicator for tracking recession risk, advises Claudia Sahm, a former Federal Reserve economists and creator of the Sahm rule that uses unemployment changes to estimate the probability that an economic downturn has started.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Although the Sahm indicator for October doesn\u2019t signal a recession has started, it\u2019s getting close to a level that marks the start of contraction.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\u201cIf you lose the labour market, you lose consumers, and if we lose consumers we\u2019re done because they\u2019re two-thirds of the US economy,\u201d Sahm tells the Financial Times.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\u201cAfter such a severe recession, if we\u2019re able to maintain something that looks like this, then we\u2019re doing well. If it all falls apart, then clearly the rebalancing wasn\u2019t successful. That\u2019s entirely possible and it\u2019s why I watch the labor market very carefully.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><em>Original Post<\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><strong>Editor&#8217;s Note:<\/strong> The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4649501-us-q4-2023-gdp-growth-still-appears-set-for-substantial-slowdown?source=feed_all_articles\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The red-hot economic growth in the third quarter remains on track to decelerate sharply in the final three months of the year, based on the median nowcast via a set of estimates compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. US output is currently estimated to be 1.0% in Q4, according to today\u2019s data. The nowcast reflects a sharply softer pace of growth vs. Q3\u2019s 4.9% increase, the highest in nearly two years. Today\u2019s median nowcast is fractionally above the previous estimate published on Oct. 27. The longer the slower nowcast persists, the more reliable the estimate will be in terms of aligning with the<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9020,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[42],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9019","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>U.S. Q4 2023 GDP Growth Still Appears Set For Substantial Slowdown | LendingSensibly<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The red-hot economic growth in the third quarter remains on track to decelerate sharply in the final three months of the year, based on the median nowcast\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link 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